Recent stock market can be said that up real or imaginary, the broader market, although not down too much, but stocks already have been cut, squeeze the bubble at the same time some are not many bubbles have been squeezed stocks have been market stocks also victimizes abound. Since the introduction of stamp duty on the middle of the night caused panic in the market, enough to give some people an excuse to enlarge the recent bearish, which is very bad impact on the market, the policy side and the shareholders are to use these interest groups, We had to come up negative on the market today to sun drying, full analysis of the analysis, in the end where these benefits empty? otherwise be detrimental to the future development of the market, finally gathered enough popular Chinese stock market face again the discarded dangerous. the development of China's financial market is very negative, it is not conducive to the promotion of value investing. Just think, once the bull market atmosphere beneath, so what is a multi-level capital market? Here we all are bearish on the market used for analysis and let investors to fully understand why these bad things. All things are like this, when you unlock the mystery, and often nothing, and bad is also true:
a rate hike: May's CPI came out , the market is not expected to raise interest rates, and why? for several reasons: 1. the last interest rate increase from the present time is too short; 2.CPI the rise mainly due to meat and eggs, then they do not spread to other consumer goods, then local control can reduce the CPI, so why spend hike; 3. the new export tax rebate policy implementation, QDII, the most critical foreign exchange investment management company (this part will be later in detail) will greatly ease the current excess liquidity problems, coupled with pre-raise the deposit reserve ratio several times, the problem of excess liquidity will be greater ease, then the need to reduce interest rates, the expected interest rate increase is not so strong, and this is why the recent interest rate increase has not been the underlying causes. Therefore, looking from above reasons, the expected rate hike in the near future will greatly reduce the abolition of interest tax in the future may reduce third-quarter down. However, the so-called pre-stir interest rate + taxes + to raise deposit reserve cancel the rate of a portfolio of gold should be said that almost no possibility.
Second, stamp duty: the duty increase, a toll on the stock market. But now the so-called Sheng year for the stock market spread plus commission stamp duty caused the loss of 4000-5000 billion investment value of the stock market does not have argument seems reasonable, in fact, is a violation of proposition. Indeed, the substantial increase in stamp duty have a certain impact on the market, which directly caused the stock market's loss of blood, but it says it is not sensational. First of all, Although the user to pay some commission, but this part of the funds into the pockets of the securities companies should be said that most of the money is not out of the stock market. stamp part, because it is to be submitted, it is definitely out, then how much out of it? transactions each year of generally less than 230, in accordance with the 200 billion transactions per day, then the stamp duty is 230 days a year out of t2000 million / day t3pt2 = 2760 million. Last year, the profits of all listed companies amounted to more than 3,600 billion, and listed companies in the first quarter of this year Gross profit increased by almost double compared with last year, coupled with the future of large capitalization stocks listed, the total profit this year will certainly be far more than last year. That duty can not offset the profits of all listed companies. Moreover, as the 2008 Olympic Games approaching, the profits of listed companies will be getting better and better, increase or reduction of stamp duty can not decide on bull or bear market, from the previous adjustment can be seen on record, although there are a greater impact, but it does not stop the bull steps. < br> Third, the large-cap stocks listed: If this is called bad, it is best to look after the Bank of China listed on the trend. While short-term psychological stress caused a great deal, but if not the Bank of China, ICBC was a significant move up, you dare would like now to market it? Therefore, the quality of listed large-cap stocks is a good thing, not a bad thing, the stock market should be positive, not negative.
four, large and small non-reduction: reduction of the size of non-call how long? can really be bad? You do not forget, in the Chinese stock market 2 / 3 of the market value of all state-owned shares, and now the introduction of state-owned shares No way, where they come from so many underweight? is that we can flow, and there are individual enterprises reduction may be part of the company to increase cash flow, and everyone knows that China should establish a large capital markets, a significant reduction at this time who (those who do not support the already high performance of the stocks may be down)? Chinese yuan assets to be underestimated, not overestimated, in this case, the foreign strategic investors most want your holdings, buy better in the future. So, I think the size of the non-reduction is not a problem, some people will not be described as that so exaggerated.
five, A, H shares Merge: This short-term possible? Hong Kong is a freely convertible currency markets, China is not freely convertible currency markets. how the same price? Chairman of the Commission have stated some time ago , this is normal for different prices, because their markets in different environments. Now HKD RMB peg policy is not possible, then the same price some time in the future will be impossible. Therefore, more talk not on the A, H merger of, B shares on not only the merger that dozens, not to mention so much of the Hong Kong securities market. Even if you can buy Hong Kong stocks to achieve the mainland, but because the RMB is not freely convertible, and there is greater appreciation of RMB expected, together with the Hong Kong market is an open market, funding the first to face the Hong Kong stock exchange speculation risks, who so stupid investment in Hong Kong stocks large quantities of it? the recent strength of Hong Kong stocks because a large return of Hong Kong ten years, the government sent them Li (QDII), QDII is difficult to form large-scale short-term.
No comments:
Post a Comment