Stock market is a very wonderful, when the index below 2000 points, the price is low, but very few people are willing to buy, and to over 3000, many stock prices have gone up several times, but the buyer gathered. This is the stock market rising self-reinforcing phenomenon. with the language of stock market analysis, the stock market upward trend is established, it is difficult to change.
but now our concern is when to leave? since 2000 point has been such a worry. This is so because in 2008 the market suffered a 70% drop side, a huge drop so many people fear. But the market is always a new challenge, and we with the times. < br> From experience, it rose to 23% of M1, the stock market risk, while June's M1 has reached more than 25%. it was observed that when, M1 is not at a high level to go on for a few days, it will continue for some time, so no need to tense. If the M1 continued to rise, then worry.
from the fundamentals, the market rally to support the most important reason is loose monetary policy. This is our foreign exchange reserves increased by 2.1 years trillion, equivalent to the issuance of 15 trillion yuan, more money will naturally fall. in loose monetary policy stimulus, people have expectations of inflation, more and more people feel the money in the bank losing money. As a result, need to find investment channels, some people buy a house, some people buy stocks, and some people just buy gold. The current fire three markets.
Therefore, the market all the institutional investors are concerned about the trend of monetary policy , as long as a monetary policy shift, and immediately retreat from the stock market. the Prime Minister have also noted that one of the secrets of time several times last month referred to Why change? will remain unchanged so long? In my view there are two main reasons: First, the economic crisis is not over, the world's major economies, not out of the woods, a long time in the future,cheap UGG boots, China's export growth are difficult, therefore, the basis of the Chinese economy is still not bottom out strong, which is the need for monetary policy. In other words, as long as the economy is still unstable, will not tighten monetary policy, did not dare to tighten ; Second, the price is relatively low, CPI is still -1.7% in June, 10-year low, although the market inflation expectations,UGGs, but after all, only expected, but did not become a reality, which makes the continued loose monetary policy possibilities. Once the price rise
appeared to accelerate the phenomenon of loose monetary policy will be tightened, the reasons for rising stock market would not exist. I estimate, before the second quarter of 2010, prices will not exceed 5%, more conservative estimated that the end of 2009,UGG boots clearance, prices will not exceed 2%. Therefore, the safety of at least six months period. of course, depends on the monthly data, if the situation appears to accelerate the rise, we must be careful.
From a fundamental perspective, the second reason is the rapid economic rise of the recovery. The first quarter economic growth rate was 6.1% to 7.9% in June, is estimated to 9% in the third quarter will be around. The third quarter will see increasingly The more-than-expected data, which are encouraged by the sentiment. The market is such, in a bull market, any good news will be amplified, and any bad news will be downplayed.
to note is that China's data not only inspired the Chinese stock market, but also inspired the stock market and commodity markets around the world, the recent bullish commodity markets began to accumulate, petroleum, non-ferrous metals prices rose rapidly, which has become a rising stock market booster. so there stock market, non-ferrous metals, coal stocks rose plate situation. But I some doubt, when the resource tax becomes a reality, these do not know the *** industry will not have excessive profits? Therefore, nonferrous metals, coal stocks have been in danger . On the contrary, a few industries (such as the power industry) because of the distorted price system by the impact of a loss, but with the price of reforms, these losses will be at least the industry average profit margin of society, then, and now the stock is undervalued . In fact, the power behind the plate is the only index of the plate, many of the company's stock is undervalued.
In short, the current trend of rising stock market has emerged, but also the fundamentals of the economy improves and the loose the support of monetary policy,bailey UGG boots, there was undoubtedly expected to accelerate the rise.
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