Nocturne A: Real Estate How winter? December 19, 2008 Andy Xie, Sohu blog
(Conference Record)
Moderator: Hello, we Finance sub-annual real estate forum tonight In this very old-fashioned, warm spring breezes of the zither sound in the beginning, this winter is still warm winter, however, the real estate industry really cold pressing, I was , we more and more pessimistic view on the market long ago, I met the most optimistic possible estimates of the real estate industry to adjust to the end of 2009 before bottoming out, there are a lot more pessimistic estimate, it was said was said for two years four years. As the market is changing, new changes every day, either there are always some new ideas thrown out, and I hope that in a collision on this forum, will follow during the day and tonight is not the General Assembly Like, everyone drinking, the free collision point of view, I hope that we can impact a spark at the same time give us a clear direction, how should this winter too, when the end of this winter.
me first introduce today's participants gentlemen, I speak today in order to introduce in accordance with, first, Beijing Vantone Real Estate Co., Ltd., Mr. Feng Lun, SOHO China Ltd Pan Shiyi, chairman, Mr. Ren Zhiqiang, president of Beijing Huayuan Group President, Greater China of Morgan Stanley chief economist Mr. Wang Qing, Data on guests at the meeting that these seven, we arrived at the scene along with two mystery guests, but also well aware of the real estate industry's own experts, sitting in the front row is the Vice Chairman of UBS Investment Bank Asia Mr. Cai Hongping. Cai Mr. deliberately delayed the flight to participate in our annual real estate is very grateful. well, chairman of Miss Wu Yajun Lake real estate. Now our forum, we will call this form of the guests to make a brief speech, everyone in an interactive presentation way to discuss the real estate industry trends, first Beijing Vantone Real Estate Co., Ltd., Mr. Feng Lun Feng Lun
: Thank you very much, I feel the moment, in fact, as part of our business, the most important thing is to allow us to think about One thing is how innovation and change to fight and across economic cycles, this is the most important. For example, now many people died in a village, what followed the cry, and finally you have worn out, or to other villages , or simply do not look at this matter. Now we change the external economy, complained a lot. Many wedding last year, we drank high, others Jin Dongfang, in fact, not yours, it complained a lot, others dead, your mother you also followed worry. we think is to look after all the real estate business after so many cycles, how the business is to survive, we have been a point of view, we must be against the cycle of innovation and change and jumping cycle. how? first enhance the predictability of future understanding of the law and industry, we are actually only the last two years of real estate limited at this stage, if large enterprises across time and space, the global real estate economy for hundreds of years to see if look carefully, we predictability and the future business model we are now taking and corporate governance will know. Second, we have a dramatic change in the business cycle, we can not avoid, but must face the United States 220 years, has 50 times the economic cycle each is a symbol of health, it must be a good way, through innovation and through this cycle, the U.S. science and technology, social and economic development has been enormous.
we face today, the beginning of this cycle, we, as local enterprises to research and innovation, in addition to predictable rules of how to manage the company. The second thing is how to reduce right and wrong, because I saw the business such as the book of life and death, 80% died and institutional game, less than 20% of the game with the economic cycle . That is our difficulty is that Chinese private enterprises were also the face of economic system transformation cycle. Most businesses do not die in the economic cycle, most of the game with the system of death, which gives us a lot of thinking, how do we in the economic restructuring and market competition among the unbeaten two things, this is our last talk, do business to how to reduce right and wrong, to make a decision if the reduction of both right and wrong, the decision-making done and if it leads to the four right and wrong not to do. If you steal one, causing the two non-police to find you, find you the victim, which more than a lot of trouble, so many failed companies are like this. in the company, and to be specialized, simplified, standardized, and elimination of these non-personal life there have been incremental, with the color, or in the company to continuously create right and wrong in their personal lives, including life, there can be creative on, probably around These are his home life. the third thing is the financial freedom and flexibility, so we the last mentioned, is called to listen to the words of her grandmother, Jay calls on us to listen to my mother, actually listen to the words of my grandmother, just do not listen to the words of Andy Xie, because economists are always right, especially so many problems on Wall Street, the economy experts 20 months ago, 50 months ago and today they are all very aware that, 50 months ago very few people understand. we will follow the specific research problems, and in times of crisis,UGG boots clearance, we return to the simple truth is listening to her grandmother's words. such as how much capability to do many big, honest man, honest and learning a craft, this confrontation cycle and long-term development which will have a role. This is why I think the most important thing is thought the company's own freedom and innovation through transformation and innovation cycle of confrontation and beyond our, for long-term development, this is the best I think we should think about the real estate business to do.
Moderator: Feng total about his point of view, when all 07 In into the bridal chamber, the industry is full of high tide, and now a period of adjustment, but I know these words of von total estimate of the situation is still relatively optimistic, but Pan is always pessimistic about the situation, I call him to talk about his views.
Pan Shiyi: I am very pessimistic about it? I was especially pessimistic, really. the first objective, said the days are very sad, we are all very difficult, difficult because some people say the U.S. got into big trouble, what caused the subprime crisis, poke a big hole in the United States may be the responsibility of Americans, 50%, China's macro-control 50% bigger hard, straining a long time. In fact, to 7-8 months to increase reserves also, in fact, already form obvious. I 24 March, when writing a blog, the day the Chinese real estate industry upheaval, many people gave me the finger Qiazhe count, in fact, you can see, if it is to save the Chinese government in March City is a V shaped, and if before the Games is estimated to save the city some time before the end, if it is again today a 4 trillion to rescue the market, when can it, I must be objective to say that I do not, and estimated expected of economists to look at. because I am limited knowledge and experience is very limited, relatively short-sighted eyes can not see when up. I think today, we are pessimistic from the beginning of this year, to today, then I am not pessimistic because the government introduced a number of policies, I do not now finds fault with all the policies issued, and not out of trouble. As for when to hit the bottom, when up and I want to have a measurable standard, the most important measure, introduced by the Government aside policy, has been very much, when the introduction of the original macro is eight States, are now ten, ten out, ten days out of every one, I will only arithmetic, count the words or more. Now is the most critical how the situation of enterprises in the end, I think to the economy up, I first look at the most critical to eliminate the bubble economy did not eliminate, this is the first one. The second criterion, each entrepreneur mistakes over time, may not be amendment, if you still come to their senses, our model would also like to move forward, if we change the mistakes in previous years, and I want to be able to recover the Chinese economy,UGG bailey button, because China is like family to me, both the money was, if the day too bad there is no justification. Thank you!
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